Part-1: 2020 US Presidential Election Prediction
Historical View:
In the last five presidential elections, Barack Obama's 2008 victory was a huge victory with the highest number of electoral college votes. George W. Bush's 2000 election victory was very competitive with a very narrow victory. Florida played an important role in each presidential election.Some states always vote for one particular party; it is a trend in the last five presidential elections. For example, Texas always vote for Republican candidates and California always vote for Democrats.
Here is a list of states voted for Republican candidates in last five presidential elections.
(Number of Electoral College votes)
(Number of Electoral College votes)
As per the current trends, Republicans have 180 solid electoral votes whereas Democrats have 196 solid votes.
2018 Midterm Election election effects:
- Obama won Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin in 2012 which Hillary lost in 2016. After 2018, midterm election results, it is clear that Ohio has become a solidly red state.
- Whereas, Democrats control the governorships in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- Democrats have chances to win 30 (20+10) electoral votes in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- So, Democrats have more chances to get 196+30=226 solid electoral votes.
- Florida and Ohio have become solidly redder, Republicans can get 180+(29+18)=227 solid electoral votes.
- Democrats can more likely get Nevada (6)+New Hampshire (4)+New Mexico (5)+Virginia (13)=28 votes which totaled to 226+28=254 electoral votes.
- North Carolina (15)+Indiana (11)=26 will more likely vote for Republicans which totaled 227+26=253 electoral votes for Republicans.
- Colorado (9) and Iowa (6) is more likely Democrats, so Democrat totaled 254+9+6=269 electoral votes.
- Michigan (16) will more likely vote for Democrats. So, Democrat candidate will more likely get 269+16=285 electoral votes.
2020 Presidential Election Predictions:
- Democratic candidate will more likely get 285 electoral votes whereas Republican candidate will get 253 electoral votes. (285+253=538).
- With the current trends of 2018 midterm election results, Democrats will most probably win 2020 presidential election.
Inputs:
- Nov 7, 2018 - Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has defeated her Republican opponent Bill Schuette to become the next governor of Michigan.
- Democrats made a net gain of at least 39 house seats.
- Michigan was part of the infamous "blue wall" for Hillary Clinton that crumbled in 2016 to hand President Trump the White House. The state had voted for Democrats in six consecutive presidential elections and supported President Obama in 2012 by 9 points before going for Trump by just over 10,000 votes.
- Democrats lost high-profile gubernatorial races in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio.
- In the governor's races, Democrats gained seven new seats including in the key Midwest states of Wisconsin, Kansas, Illinois, and Michigan and Nevada.
- Colorado Democratic US Rep. Jared Polis will be his state's next governor, becoming the nation's first openly gay man elected to a governor.
- Iowa will be the next battleground state: Democrats scored major victories, flipping 2 congressional seats. So how did Democrat Fred Hubbell lose the governor race to Republican Kim Reynolds? If Iowa will go to Republican, Democrat vote will shrink to 285-6=279 and Republican vote will rise to 253+6=259.
Conclusion:
- Republicans did well with rural voters, white Southerner voters, and low-educated voters; while Democrats won among urban voters, minorities, and highly educated white suburbanites.
- Trump base is standing like a wall while more voters are leaning towards Democrats.
- 2018 Midterm election results show Democrats won about 11 million more votes than Republicans.
- Robert Mueller investigation will be the key factor in the 2020 presidential election.
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